Adjusting for a Global Oil Crisis the Right Way

Before I get into the nitty-gritty, when you think, "oh, this doesn't impact me," I'll talk you through how it can and will.

Geopolitical events have been in the top five (top three, even) listed risks by business continuity professionals for the last few years. Issues were apparent when Russia invade Ukraine - not just due to sanctions and security, but supply chain issues - particularly sources. More niche, the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey had their renovations for Newark Airport delayed due to buying glass (they needed lots of it) from the Ukraine...which was being made by military aged males in factories who had to go fight in the war. But now we have oil and shipping lanes directly under attack.

Here we go with a look at the bigger picture: oil availability in general, which impacts price. Simple supply and demand. The supply is being limited by Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. The demand is high, which increases the price. It's an energy source (non-renewable) that many countries are dependent on for their infrastructure. You can see this unfold to disaster levels in Cuba since they've been cut off from Venezuelan oil for months. But let's look at Sri Lanka.

Sri Lanka has announced this week, effective immediately (as in the very next day, which was a Wednesday), that Wednesdays are national holidays. The intent is to ration fuel. They are also doing things like the US did back in the '70s with gas stations allowing customers to fuel up alternate days based on even or odd license plates. National holidays come with less public transportation services. Impacts?

There will be less fuel being used, so, yay! But there will be a slowdown in work getting done across the board. Students in schools will fall behind. Private street vendors will make less money on Wednesdays since there are no commuters and less clients. They are also losing money because they have products based on anticipating normal numbers of customers that won't sell. Some of those vendors sell to restaurants...which also have less customers and will order fewer fresh fruit/vegetables.

These problems are mostly a result of the sudden plan taking effect. How could any of these be lessened?

If the Sri Lankan government did continuity of government and business, they would have identified a "what if we can't get oil?" That's honestly something they should have considered with geopolitics. They could have gone forward with their plan as they did but differently.

1) warn the citizens that it is possible in general [takes advanced thinking and paying attention]

2) educate them on how to handle it

3) create the ability to work from home or do remote learning. [I'm honestly shocked this wasn't a thing. Wasn't this something we learned from COVID-19? A national holiday? They didn't increase the hours to make it a 4-day work week, they just cut out one entire day of productivity every week indefinitely]

4) Give advanced notice when getting ready to implement the actual plan

If there was a warning, and I had done business continuity, I would have started to look at my supply numbers and orders and adjusted to save from waste (assume that storage isn't an option for fresh food). If the vendors even had two days' worth of notice they could have adjusted their sales the days leading into the national holiday -- like I've seen at end-of-season farmers markets: they need to get rid of the food so it's a great deal time.

Yes, I can blame the government for not helping their citizens more, but imagine how impressive it is to not have to rely on the government because you pay attention and already have planned for these things...

That's why the EaaS logo has "Secure. Survive. Thrive." Secure your assets with a plan. Survive the disruption. Thrive in the aftermath.