Reading Tea Leaves Part I: Pistachios

Pistachio nuts are all the rage right now. Lots of pistachio-flavored items for sale beyond the usual ice cream (see: matcha powder, croissants, creme, the viral Dubai chocolate). What do they have to do with business continuity -- ah, ah: don't go directly to supply chain! We go deeper here!

Like any craze (think avocados when avocado toast was new), the source material is experiencing a shortage. I remember people asking - in the news, even - were there going to be enough avocados? Would the price of them skyrocket? The drain on the supply of pistachios is being blamed on the demand for the Dubai chocolate.

Trader Joe's created their own, much cheaper version of Dubai chocolate and it aced the taste tests so much they sold out in all TJ's in a day or two. I asked my local TJs in early June when they'd get more back in: first week of July. I asked Thursday when I should be ready to get one: Fall.

Hmmm. There was a stated reason, though!

The decision-makers at TJs didn't want to create a rush in July that would have them sold out in 1-2 days again, disappointing many people. They are building up the supply and will spread it out over a few weeks. That is the kind of smarts I like to see when I talk about business continuity being good for going viral. Instead of going viral and going bust or continually disappointing their customers with "we had them this morning but they sold out and we aren't getting more for weeks," or a crappy substitute to hold people over, they planned to do a controlled release, kind of like you do with a damn.

Maybe TJs is smarter than the average bear: were they just testing it first to see if the mass production push would be worth it? Clearly they were ready to come back with more in July and made a decision to push that out a few months. They aren't in a sloppy rush, cutting corners to appease the customer's demands. They have plenty of other items on offer being rolled out every week until they have a good, steady supply of their Dubai chocolate.

I've actually seen this play out with their mini totes. I knew they went viral to the point a $2.99 bag was being sold in the after-market for $100. My store was cleaned out of them quickly. Then one day, months later, a whole batch of them were just sitting out; they even the color I wanted. They weren't hidden. There wasn't a big commotion about them. Same bag for the same price. The demand and supply were at a point where they met each other.

Reading the tea leaves is hard in business, but I think Trader Joe's does a great job of it to allow them to stay atop of their game and their customers satisfied.

The next blog will be more about reading the tea leaves for a cultural shift in an industry. I've previously written about the wine industry (a full year before CNN did) and how it's a skill necessary for industry-wide business continuity. Where I go next, however, is about the stubborn failure to even acknowledge there is tea brewing....